The goal of this study is to examine the profitability of a CO2 capture plant for the use at a waste incineration plant and to investigate the economic viability at the site in Dürnrohr, considering the possible inclusion of waste incineration plants in the European Emissions Trading System (EU-ETS) from 2026 onwards.
For this purpose, a model was created that considers the cashflow of the project over a selected period of time. To be able to compare the current monetary value with a future monetary value, the discounted cashflow is plotted. The discounted cashflow is discounted with a discount factor. The weighted average cost of capital of 6% was used as the discount factor.
The costs on which the model is based on consist of capital and operating expenditures, which have been estimated accordingly. Revenue is generated by the sale of captured CO2 and can be increased by trading carbon certificates. A consideration of both variables is essential to obtain a complete and meaningful model.
Whether waste incineration plants will be included in the Emissions Trading System is uncertain at the time. Therefore, three scenarios were developed, which consider the inclusion in the EU-ETS and the different amounts of product gas sold.
In addition, the impact of CO2 production, CO2 price, operating- and capital expenditures on the discounted cashflow was investigated and described in a sensitivity analysis.
For two out of three cases, the project generates a positive discounted cash flow, which is in the range of 500.000 € to 700.000 €. The cashflow calculated under assumptions shows that an investment in a capture plant is worthwhile, but that it will be necessary to observe the certificate market on the one hand and the price development of the CO2 to be sold on the other hand. The extent to which it will be necessary to build specific infrastructure to transport the carbon dioxide needs to be factored into the financial decision, as will potential technological innovations.