TY - JOUR

T1 - New Subsidence Prediction Method Incorporating Asymmetry and Shape Flexibility

T2 - A Study Case of Salt Caverns in North Germany

AU - Babaryka, Aleksandra

PY - 2025/2/17

Y1 - 2025/2/17

N2 - Subsidence prediction serves as a crucial risk analysis and management tool in miningregions. To mitigate risks associated with ground subsidence, understanding not onlythe magnitude but also the relative position of mining-induced ground movements anddeformations is essential. The source of subsidence stems from the convergence of anunderground void due to the overlaying rock mass and related pressure. This istransferred to the surface, resulting in a typical subsidence trough. In empiricalfunctional prediction methods, this shape is modeled by an influence function.Classical subsidence prediction offers an efficient solution for symmetrical shapes andGaussian-distributed subsidence; however, real-world observations revealasymmetrical and uniquely shaped patterns. Various mathematical approaches havebeen implemented to account for these patterns to improve subsidence prediction.Nonetheless, they possess significant disadvantages such as complexity, noninterpretability of parameters, and an inability to accommodate other patterns. Thisarticle introduces a novel solution for subsidence prediction, addressing bothasymmetry and shape deviations concurrently or independently, while retainingcompatibility with classical solutions.To evaluate the prediction method, the best-estimated parameters are applied acrossdifferent scenarios, including a full case study of subsidence above energy storage saltcaverns in the Middle European region. The application of the new solution significantlyimproves the subsidence prediction accuracy, with up to a 25% reduction in meansquare error compared to the classical subsidence prediction method and up to a 12%improvement over individual pattern approaches

AB - Subsidence prediction serves as a crucial risk analysis and management tool in miningregions. To mitigate risks associated with ground subsidence, understanding not onlythe magnitude but also the relative position of mining-induced ground movements anddeformations is essential. The source of subsidence stems from the convergence of anunderground void due to the overlaying rock mass and related pressure. This istransferred to the surface, resulting in a typical subsidence trough. In empiricalfunctional prediction methods, this shape is modeled by an influence function.Classical subsidence prediction offers an efficient solution for symmetrical shapes andGaussian-distributed subsidence; however, real-world observations revealasymmetrical and uniquely shaped patterns. Various mathematical approaches havebeen implemented to account for these patterns to improve subsidence prediction.Nonetheless, they possess significant disadvantages such as complexity, noninterpretability of parameters, and an inability to accommodate other patterns. Thisarticle introduces a novel solution for subsidence prediction, addressing bothasymmetry and shape deviations concurrently or independently, while retainingcompatibility with classical solutions.To evaluate the prediction method, the best-estimated parameters are applied acrossdifferent scenarios, including a full case study of subsidence above energy storage saltcaverns in the Middle European region. The application of the new solution significantlyimproves the subsidence prediction accuracy, with up to a 25% reduction in meansquare error compared to the classical subsidence prediction method and up to a 12%improvement over individual pattern approaches

M3 - Article

VL - ??? Stand: 28. März 2025

JO - Rock mechanics and rock engineering

JF - Rock mechanics and rock engineering

SN - 0723-2632

IS - ??? Stand: 28. März 2025

ER -