TY - JOUR

T1 - GIS-Based Assessment of Flash Flood Potential in North Macedonia: Insights from Advanced Geospatial Analytics

AU - Bojana , Aleksova

AU - Milevski, Ivica

AU - Cvetković, Vladimir

AU - Nikolic, Neda

N1 - Aleksova, B., Milevski, I., Cvetković, V. M., & Nikolić, N. (2025). GIS-Based Assessment of Flash Flood Potential in North Macedonia: Insights from Advanced Geospatial Analytics. Preprints. https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202501.0789.v1

PY - 2025/1/15

Y1 - 2025/1/15

N2 - Flash floods, driven largely by climate and land-use changes, are among the most destructive natural hazards globally, causing significant damage and loss of life. This study employs the Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI) to assess flood-prone areas in North Macedonia's catchments, utilizing GIS and advanced geospatial analytics. The average FFPI values for the main and subcatchments range from 5.34 to 6.46. Across the country's territory, 24.7% of the subcatchments are identified as very highly vulnerable to flash floods (torrential catchments). Correspondingly, the FFPI model ranges from 2.1 to 15.1, with an average value of 5.9, revealing significant spatial variability in flash flood risks across the country. The model classifies vulnerability into five categories, from 1 (very low) to 5 (very high). The Treska, Kriva Reka, and Pčinja River catchments exhibit the highest flood-prone susceptibility, with average FFPI values of 3.36, 3.30, and 3.22, respectively. Nationwide, 25.6% of the area is categorized as highly vulnerable to flash floods. The FFPI model was validated using intense precipitation data and historical flash flood events, ensuring a robust assessment of flood susceptibility. This research addresses the challenges of flash flood forecasting and management in North Macedonia, particularly in regions with limited observational data. By integrating factors such as slope, lithology, land use, vegetation, and the Bare Soil Index (BSI), alongside rainfall, peak discharges, and response times, this study aims to inform improved flood risk management strategies.

AB - Flash floods, driven largely by climate and land-use changes, are among the most destructive natural hazards globally, causing significant damage and loss of life. This study employs the Flash Flood Potential Index (FFPI) to assess flood-prone areas in North Macedonia's catchments, utilizing GIS and advanced geospatial analytics. The average FFPI values for the main and subcatchments range from 5.34 to 6.46. Across the country's territory, 24.7% of the subcatchments are identified as very highly vulnerable to flash floods (torrential catchments). Correspondingly, the FFPI model ranges from 2.1 to 15.1, with an average value of 5.9, revealing significant spatial variability in flash flood risks across the country. The model classifies vulnerability into five categories, from 1 (very low) to 5 (very high). The Treska, Kriva Reka, and Pčinja River catchments exhibit the highest flood-prone susceptibility, with average FFPI values of 3.36, 3.30, and 3.22, respectively. Nationwide, 25.6% of the area is categorized as highly vulnerable to flash floods. The FFPI model was validated using intense precipitation data and historical flash flood events, ensuring a robust assessment of flood susceptibility. This research addresses the challenges of flash flood forecasting and management in North Macedonia, particularly in regions with limited observational data. By integrating factors such as slope, lithology, land use, vegetation, and the Bare Soil Index (BSI), alongside rainfall, peak discharges, and response times, this study aims to inform improved flood risk management strategies.

UR - https://doi.org/10.20944/preprints202501.0789.v1

UR - https://www.preprints.org/manuscript/202501.0789/v1

M3 - Article

SP - 1

EP - 24

JO - Preprints

JF - Preprints

SN - 2310-287X

ER -